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Increase in US poverty from 2020 to 2021

Question

As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article.

The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.

Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?

This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described here is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:

  • Income Measure: "Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line"
  • Sample: "All Individuals"

The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.

If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.

November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for "late 2021".

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