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49 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
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How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
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110k
110k
(88.3k - 145k)
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Scientific Articles Published
2 comments
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AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B
0 comments
18 forecasters
When will peak Deep Learning be?
Current estimate
06 Dec 2029
1 comment
8 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
105M H100 Equivalents
1 comment
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Question Answering on Long Texts by 2030
Current estimate
96.4%
8 comments
37 forecasters
Development of Human-Level Language Models
Current estimate
18 Feb 2024
24 comments
98 forecasters
Greatest Computation Used in AI Training