In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same thing. To impeach is to bring charges and is done by the House of Representatives. But it is up to the Senate to convict.
Two-thirds of Senators present must find the president guilty for him to be removed.
The House voted on 13 January to impeach Trump for incitement for insurrection. It will now proceed to the Senate.
In a memo obtained by The Washington Post, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s office notes that the Senate will not reconvene for substantive business until Jan. 19, which means the earliest possible date that impeachment trial proceedings can begin in the Senate is the day before President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated. It is likely the trial will continue after Trump is no longer President, but he still can be convicted.
[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?
This question resolves positive if Trump is convicted by the Senate by 2/3rds vote, per a credible source. The vote count on congress.gov is considered a credible source. If that source isn’t available, credible media reports will be consulted. This question resolves negative if this does not happen by the end of 2021.
If the trial occurs before the closing date, this question will close retroactively to the minute the trial begins.
Additional impeachments of Trump, if any, beyond the one on 13 Jan 2021 will have no bearing on this question.