Question

What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?

Resolved:98.145401

23 comments23

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction

96.2

(93.8 - 97.9)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	93.79	96.21	97.87
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	93.79	—
median	96.21	—
upper 75%	97.87	—

What was the final result?98.145401

Community Baseline Score

126.3

Community Peer Score

9.6

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Feb 23, 2021

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 24, 2021

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What the explosive growth of 'blowout counties' means for U.S. politics

NBC•Jun 21, 2025

Almost Half of Democrats Say a Third Party Is Necessary—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Rust Belt Voters Are Sick of Both Parties

Jacobin•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Mar 2059

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2082