Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved:No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters210

Community Prediction

(0.2% - 1.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

8.9

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Feb 19, 2021

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2021

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Mar 2059

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