47 comments
210 forecasters
Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2021
Closes:Nov 4, 2024
Resolved:Nov 25, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2021
When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?
Mar 2059
(Aug 2047 - >2100)
Mar 2059
(Aug 2047 - >2100)
13 forecasters
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
0.5% chance
18
Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
50% chance
100