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    2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%?

    Created by Cato and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since 1848.

    The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)

    Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

    This prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.

    Categories:
    Elections – U.S. – 2024 U.S. Elections
    Elections – U.S. – President

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