Question

Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?

Resolved:Yes

55 comments55

Total Forecasters356

Community Prediction

99%

(95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

8.5

Community Baseline Score

-6.4

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2021

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

'If there's a terrible tragedy': JD Vance says he's ready for presidency ... in 2025

Daily Mail•Aug 29, 2025

JD Vance Gives Update on Potential Presidential Run

Newsweek•Aug 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?

17%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

21%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2021

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

'If there's a terrible tragedy': JD Vance says he's ready for presidency ... in 2025

Daily Mail•Aug 29, 2025

JD Vance Gives Update on Potential Presidential Run

Newsweek•Aug 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?

17%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

21%