183 forecasters

Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?

39%chance

39%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 39% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

michal_dubrawski

Opened:

Jan 25, 2021

Closes:

Sep 25, 2021

Resolved:

Dec 8, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 26, 2021

Future Perfect 2021 Series

2021 Leaderboard

Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right AfD party the biggest winner in German local elections

PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025

Germany’s ruling CDU wins local elections in key state, as AfD surges

Al Jazeera•Sep 15, 2025

Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right party the biggest winner in German local elections

Associated Press•Sep 15, 2025

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