15 comments
90 forecasters
Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2021
Closes:Oct 19, 2021
Resolved:Oct 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 24, 2021
How many people will take the EA survey in 2030?
3677 people
(2178 - 6433)
3677 people
(2178 - 6433)
26 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
95% chance
82
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79% chance
90