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Bolsonaro president of Brazil in 2023

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Question

All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.

Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, ascending after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and dropping as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his mishandling of the pandemic in Brazil, bad economic performance, corruption, and disregard for the due democratic process.

Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro already contested the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.

Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?

  • This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.

  • It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.

Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, autogolpe, and coup d'état, we must wait till the resolution date.

In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution.

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