📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?

Resolved :0.2660.632
4
5
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction0.632 (0.192 - 1.03)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<-5
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
0.1917
0.6318
1.032
0.3%

What was the final result?0.266

Community Baseline Score
108.8
Community Peer Score
3.9
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economy & Business
2021 Leaderboard
COVID-19 vaccine
United States
Medicine
Immunology
Virology
Bureau of Labor Statistics

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