Question

What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?

Resolved:63.3

2 comments2

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

59.3

(57.9 - 61.9)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>65
community	57.93	59.3	61.92	12.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	57.93	—
median	59.3	—
upper 75%	61.92	—
Upper bound
>65	12.5%	—

What was the final result?63.3

Community Peer Score

8.7

Community Baseline Score

-49.9

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 13, 2021

Closes:

Mar 13, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 22, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2021

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Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Artificial Intelligence

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