FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    U.S. Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01

    Created by Fee on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Fee on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.

    U.S. forces met the first commitment to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.

    U.S. troop count is presently at 2,500, as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.

    The Biden administration is currently reviewing the peace deal with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.

    Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?

    The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).

    Categories:
    Geopolitics

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.