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Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?
It was previously asked whether or not SpaceX's first crewed flight would take place in 2018, yet a more interesting question in the scheme of things would be whether or not that first flight goes terribly wrong.
Even if SpaceX's first crewed flight is delayed by one or two years, that will probably not have all to great an impact on the company's chance of surviving and achieving its long-term goal of building a city on Mars. The death of a crew member in a test flight on the other hand would have a much more devastating effect and may lead to the de facto shutdown of SpaceX.
Therefore, it is asked:Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) lead to the death of a crew member?
Resolution time has been set to January 1st 2020. It is hoped the first flight will have taken place by then and hopefully the question can be resolved even earlier, should the test take place in 2018. Should SpaceX not attempt to launch anybody into space by 2025, the question shall resolve ambiguous.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.