10 comments
37 forecasters
When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2021
Closes:Jul 1, 2022
Resolved:Mar 3, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 11, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
28 Oct 2027
(12 Oct 2026 - 10 Feb 2029)
28 Oct 2027
(12 Oct 2026 - 10 Feb 2029)
201 forecasters
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
11 Aug 2026
(14 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
11 Aug 2026
(14 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
60 forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
18 forecasters