🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?

Resolved :2036.7
7
7
Total Forecasters25
Community Prediction36.7 (24.7 - 51.6)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
24.7
36.72
51.63

What was the final result?20

Community Baseline Score
7.9
Community Peer Score
26.2
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
Virology
GISAID
Geography
Public health
COVID-19
Epidemiology
Brazil
Genetics
History

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