23 comments
129 forecasters
Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?
95%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
Opened:Feb 5, 2021
Closes:Feb 25, 2021
Resolved:Feb 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 6, 2021
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
3 forecasters
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24
When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?
Jan 2033
(16 Aug 2029 - Dec 2036)
Jan 2033
(16 Aug 2029 - Dec 2036)
17 forecasters