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Will SN10 land?


SpaceX is currently developing Starship - a two-stage, reusable launch system intended to one day bring humans to Mars.

On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km.

On Feburary 2nd 2021, Starship SN9 was the second prototype to do so.

Both SN8 and SN9 failed to land successfully, exploding on impact.

The cause of SN8's failure is thought to be fuel tank underpressure, causing oxygen-rich combustion to overheat and destroy one engine.

The cause of SN9's failure was that one of the two Raptor engines used for the attempted landing failed to re-light for the landing burn.

When asked why SN9 did not re-light all three engines, and subsequently shut-off one of them if all three re-lit successfully, Elon Musk responded that It was foolish of us not to start 3 engines & immediately shut down 1, as 2 are needed to land.

The Starship SN10 prototype is currently on the launch pad being fitted with Raptor engines, and is expected to fly soon.

Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?

This question will resolve positively if the Starship SN10 prototype flies to an altitude of at least 1km and successfully lands.

If Starship SN10 has not flown yet by the resolution date, this question resolves ambiguous.

If Starship SN10 is destroyed without flying to an altitude of at least 1km, or if SpaceX announces that it does not intend to fly SN10 after all, then this question resolves negative.

The landing will be considered successful or unsuccessful if it is described as such by SpaceX or Elon Musk (they do not need to use those exact words), if neither comments on the success of the landing, then by two reliable media sources.

Series — SpaceX

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