Question

Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

32.2

Community Peer Score

1.4

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 12, 2021

Closes:

Mar 30, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 30, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 12, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

37%

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 12, 2021

Closes:

Mar 30, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 30, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 12, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

37%

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%