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41 forecasters
Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
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How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?
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8312 e-prints
8312 e-prints
(5240 - 13.9k)
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When will peak Deep Learning be?
Current estimate
06 Dec 2029
0 comments
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Scientific Articles Published
5 comments
17 forecasters
AI reaches human-level in reading charts
Current estimate
04 Jan 2027
10 comments
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Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
13 comments
23 forecasters
AI Book Summarization Commonly Available
Current estimate
19 Mar 2026
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
9 comments
78 forecasters
SOTA on ImageNet Top-1 Accuracy