39 comments
142 forecasters
When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?
Current estimate
May 2054
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Mar 20, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2500
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2500
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 22, 2021
When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
Jun 2062
(Feb 2056 - 2086)
Jun 2062
(Feb 2056 - 2086)
72 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
65% chance
88
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?
92% chance
142