Related questions on Metaculus:
- Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?
- Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?
- When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
In the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
For many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.
When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?
This question will resolve as the date when average life expectancy at 10-years old in any country sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.
Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).
Positive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.
Positive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.
If it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as January 1 of the relevant year. [/fine-print