38 comments
95 forecasters
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
Current estimate
1.47M years
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 20, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 3000
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 21, 2021
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33% chance
404
Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?
0.3% chance
46
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?
18k years
(449 - 6.76M)
18k years
(449 - 6.76M)
163 forecasters