Question

Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?

Resolved:Yes

12 comments12

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction

95%

(92% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

77.3

Community Peer Score

5.8

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Feb 19, 2021

Closes:

May 31, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2021

Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

2021 Leaderboard

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

143k

Will visits by a US President to EU member states fall below 1 visit/year for a period of at least three years before 2051?

17%