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Highest US core CPI growth in 2021

Question

The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.

Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).

What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?

This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be found here.

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