6 comments
61 forecasters
Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2021
Closes:May 31, 2021
Resolved:Mar 25, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 21, 2021
Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?
97% chance
51
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
80.1% chance
43
Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?
90% chance
25