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Kessler syndrome by 2050?

The Kessler syndrome is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.

We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.

It is asked:

By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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