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Tether to collapse in 2021

Tether is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.

Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?

The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:

  • Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the Kraken exchange. This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair.
  • Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days.
  • Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx.

(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)

The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.

The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022.


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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.