The United States House of Representatives ("House") can expel, censure, or reprimand any of its own members if Members vote to do so.
Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is suing others. One Member lost her Committee privileges. Others have been censured by political organizations outside of Congress. Ethics complaints have been drawn up by citizens' groups.
Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided.
Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?
The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.
The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).
The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.
"House Member" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.
Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).
Note: A vote to remove a Member following an "Election Contest" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote.