Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

US House punishes member by 2022-09-03

Related question: Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?

The United States House of Representatives ("House") can expel, censure, or reprimand any of its own members if Members vote to do so.

Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is suing others. One Member lost her Committee privileges. Others have been censured by political organizations outside of Congress. Ethics complaints have been drawn up by citizens' groups.

Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided.

Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?

The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.

The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).

The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.

Online sources are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as The Hill or Roll Call are also credible sources.

"House Member" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.

Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).

Note: A vote to remove a Member following an "Election Contest" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.