📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?

Resolved :76.1M61.4M
10
19
Total Forecasters45
Community Prediction61.4M (52.8M - 71.9M)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
<1M
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>200M
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
52.78M
61.41M
71.89M
0.5%

What was the final result?76.1M

Community Baseline Score
51.8
Community Peer Score
22.3
Authors:
faz
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021 Leaderboard
Germany
COVID-19 vaccine
Medicine
Immunology
Virology

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