aggregating accurate understanding composing calibrated futures modeling contingent estimations composing quantitative wisdom modeling critical forecasts mapping the future delivering precise insights crowdsourcing calibrated understanding delivering intelligent insights forecasting critical futures forecasting probable predictions forecasting quantitative wisdom aggregating accurate contingencies crowdsourcing calibrated predictions
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?

Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded.

The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it:

will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.

Molner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.

Will this bold prediction come to pass?

Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an "red nova" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)

(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.

Categories: Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.