8 comments
185 forecasters
Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?
63%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 63% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 5, 2018
Closes:Oct 31, 2018
Resolved:Nov 28, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 5, 2018
When will Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?
10 Aug 2026
(09 Sep 2025 - 26 Oct 2028)
10 Aug 2026
(09 Sep 2025 - 26 Oct 2028)
31 forecasters
Who will be the next #1 FIDE-ranked chess player?
65 forecasters
When will Alireza Firouzja be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?
Mar 2033
(31 May 2028 - >Jan 2035)
Mar 2033
(31 May 2028 - >Jan 2035)
28 forecasters