32 comments
147 forecasters
Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?
1%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 6, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 7, 2021
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
67.2% chance
78
How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?
4 metro areas
(3 - 6)
4 metro areas
(3 - 6)
93 forecasters
Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?
8% chance
18