75 comments
295 forecasters
When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
Current estimate
28 Jul 2026
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 8, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 10, 2021
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
10 Jun 2026
(22 Nov 2025 - 16 Aug 2026)
10 Jun 2026
(22 Nov 2025 - 16 Aug 2026)
28 forecasters
In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?
20 forecasters
When will AI be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition?
03 Feb 2029
(11 May 2026 - Jan 2036)
03 Feb 2029
(11 May 2026 - Jan 2036)
46 forecasters