Question

Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?

Resolved:No

17 comments17

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction

55%

(47% - 63%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

5.4

Community Peer Score

11.8

Authors:

taskaryan

Opened:

Mar 25, 2021

Closes:

Apr 15, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 2, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 27, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k