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Hungary's Total Fertility Rate 2023

Question

Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:

Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019:

Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme

  • A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children
  • A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child.
  • A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded
  • After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child
  • Grand-parents could be eligible for "GYED" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three
  • The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022
  • A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children

On 7th January 2021, news reported that:

Carrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.

However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong:

In January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.

Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.

More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia.

What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?

This question will as Hungary's total fertility rate in 2023, according to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office

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