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If EU democracy overthrown, by whom?


As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?

Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"?

A list of EU countries can be found here.

A country will be considered to be a democracy if:

  • It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's Democracy Index. Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes.
  • A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness.

This question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to "the left", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by "the right", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a "right to left" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.

If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.

In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.

Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore.

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