Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Derek Chauvin convicted of homicide by June?
Derek Michael Chauvin is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.
Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021, with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?
This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin. The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.
In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.