🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?

Resolved :2.30.0705
1
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction0.0705 (-1.35 - 1.58)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<-15
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15
...
...
...
...
...
0.3%
-1.352
0.07054
1.578
0.4%

What was the final result?2.3

Community Baseline Score
69.3
Community Peer Score
0.8
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economy & Business
2021 Leaderboard
United States
US Census Bureau

Comments

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