Forecast
Facebook Twitter
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • Leave Question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question draft.

    The author will submit it for review by Community Moderators when it's ready. Thanks for helping!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Russian annexation of Ukraine by 2022

    Created by Aithir on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Aithir {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}

    Question

    After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off nearly 90% of the region's fresh water. Given the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet this situation seems intolarable for Russia. Recently Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a credible threat to the Ukrainian territory.

    Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?

    This question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their official constitution (English source), specifically, under 'Chapter 3, Federated device' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3).

    Categories:
    Geopolitics – Armed Conflict
    Politics – European

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.