FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Your essay is now in Draft mode

    Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

    Release Date of Nate Silver's 2nd Book

    Created by onlyasith on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight and the author of 2012's “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”

    On April 8th, 2021, Nate stated: "I guess I can't formally announce this new book yet because we haven't signed the contract yet, but I've had encouraging conversations with my agent and publisher and have a strong inkling for the direction I want to go for my second book."

    When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?

    The first date on which a book authored primarily or solely by Nate Silver is officially released (i.e. available in bookstores or shipped to public customers for the first time).

    This will likely be resolved via the release date shown on Amazon US, but may resolve earlier if there is evidence that the book will be shipped earlier via some other method available to the entire public (i.e. directly via a website credibly linked to Nate Silver).

    Pre-sale dates, pre-release contests not available to everyone in the public, or the like will not count toward resolution. This question will not resolve until the date of release has arrived and there is no evidence of any delay in the release date.

    Chapters or similar contributions written by Silver in a book or other medium where he is not the sole author will not count toward resolution.

    Categories:
    Entertainment – Books

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list