Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

U.S. troops in Afghanistan: a Last Detail


Related question by @Fee, with many background facts: Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01

In the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as mujahedeen, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was Al Qaeda. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he & al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left.

On September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and Somerset County, Pennsylvania, as well as large-scale property damage in those locales. Soon after that, on October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan.

Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence. On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's "Seal Team Six" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden.

U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.. Following various "troop drawdowns", the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but President Biden decided that some troops would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S..

Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable & unforeseeable. This question asks:

Will U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?

Statements issued by civilian leaders of the U.S. military, or by any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any source familiar with the territory.

Resolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, "blue hats", or any Private military contractors or "PMCs". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted.

2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.