25 comments
65 forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Current estimate
3.74 years
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
When will we have transformative AI?
Dec 2040
(Oct 2030 - Feb 2065)
Dec 2040
(Oct 2030 - Feb 2065)
162 forecasters
What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
166 trillions $
(121 - 404)
166 trillions $
(121 - 404)
52 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?
8.35%
(3.45 - 19.2)
8.35%
(3.45 - 19.2)
33 forecasters