Question
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Total Forecasters178
Community Prediction
Dec 2030
(26 Aug 2026 - May 2043)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 26 Aug 2026 | — |
| median | Dec 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | May 2043 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2299 | 4.7% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021
