Question
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Total Forecasters181
Community Prediction
Sep 2030
(16 Jul 2026 - Aug 2041)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 16 Jul 2026 | — |
| median | Sep 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | Aug 2041 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2299 | 4.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021