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Korean reunification by 2045

Question

All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953.

Even after the end of the Korean War, reunification proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.

Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?

The question resolves positively if either:

  • North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge.

or

  • North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory.

Resolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.

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