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Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?

This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.

A “significant leadership disruption” includes confirmed reports that the leader: has resigned; has formally left office; has been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has died; has been medically incapacitated or hospitalized for 10 or more consecutive days; or his/her whereabouts have been unknown for 10 or more days.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.