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Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?

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This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.

A “significant leadership disruption” includes confirmed reports that the leader: has resigned; has formally left office; has been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has died; has been medically incapacitated or hospitalized for 10 or more consecutive days; or his/her whereabouts have been unknown for 10 or more days.

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