42 comments
162 forecasters
Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?
55%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 55% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Authors:
Opened:Apr 22, 2021
Closes:Oct 31, 2022
Resolved:Apr 10, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 24, 2021
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
10 May 2029
(09 Nov 2026 - Oct 2033)
175 forecasters
When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved for sale in the US?
04 Oct 2025
(17 Sep 2024 - 08 Jan 2027)
04 Oct 2025
(17 Sep 2024 - 08 Jan 2027)
67 forecasters
When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
24 Feb 2027
(01 Jul 2025 - 19 Aug 2029)
24 Feb 2027
(01 Jul 2025 - 19 Aug 2029)
45 forecasters