Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question draft.

The author will submit it for review by Community Moderators when it's ready. Thanks for helping!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Forethought Foundation flourishes for 4 years


The Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which "aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible". It has recently been hiring

Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?

For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.